PMID-18578851 Overconfidence in an objective anticipatory motor task.
- Participants were asked to press a key in synchrony with a predictable visual event and were rewarded if they succeeded and sometimes penalized if they were too quick or too slow.
- If they had used their own motor uncertainty in anticipating the timing of the visual stimulus, they would have maximized their gain.
- However, they instead displayed an overconfidence in the sense that they underestimated the magnitude of their uncertainty and the cost of their error.
- Therefore, overconfidence is not limited to subjective ratings in cognitive tasks, but rather appears to be a general characteristic of human decision making. interesting! but is overconfidence really so bad?
|